George Bayer
Measuring Portfolio Value for Government Programs and Initiatives
Parsing historical data projects is a practiced activity for many software cost estimators.  However, there are several hidden flaws with data point selection.  This paper draws from work performed by Nasim Talib, author of The Black Swan, and includes: Error of Casual Analysis, Narrative Fallacy, Fallacy of Silent Evidence, Ludic Fallacy.  Each of these fallacies can lead to invalid data selection and consequently invalidate any software estimate drawn from conclusions using this bad data.

George Bayer, a Director at Cobec Consulting with over 20 years of Finance experience, manages cost and benefits estimating teams for Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) acquisitions. Prior to the FAA, George led economic analyses and DCF valuations at BP and ConocoPhillips. Mr. Bayer received the Leadership/Management Award for the Washington ICEAA Chapter in 2017 and has a BSBA in Finance from the University of Florida and an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin.